This view is prepared once a day. Official player facts and results are checked separately from model forecasts. A newer official-data check does not mean the predictions have been regenerated. Check the generation timestamp before using a forecast.
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Compare attacks, defences and players, or change the period and player metric below.
Results: Goals scored / match 0.5 → 1.5
Opponents faced: GW2 COV (A), GW3 AVL (H) → GW4 CHE (A), GW5 NEW (A)
Recent opponents were harder; this keeps higher priority with the current opponent context. Saved FDR: 2.5 → 3.5.
Next three fixtures · Average FDR 3.0
Results: Goals scored / match 2.5 → 1.0
Opponents faced: GW2 BHA (H), GW3 ARS (A) → GW4 HUL (H), GW5 BRE (A)
Recent opponents were easier; this keeps higher priority with the current opponent context. Saved FDR: 4.0 → 2.5.
Next three fixtures · Average FDR 2.7
Results: Goals conceded / match 1.0 → 1.0
Opponents faced: GW2 LIV (A), GW3 TOT (H) → GW4 AVL (A), GW5 COV (H)
Recent opponents were easier; the schedule may explain part of the change, so this has lower priority. Saved FDR: 3.0 → 2.5.
Next three fixtures · Average FDR 3.0
Results: Goals conceded / match 3.0 → 1.5
Opponents faced: GW2 MCI (H), GW3 FUL (A) → GW4 IPS (H), GW5 LEE (A)
Recent opponents were easier; the schedule may explain part of the change, so this has lower priority. Saved FDR: 3.5 → 2.5.
Next three fixtures · Average FDR 3.3
Results: Goals conceded / match 1.0 → 1.5
Opponents faced: GW2 NEW (H), GW3 NFO (A) → GW4 EVE (H), GW5 AVL (H)
Recent opponent difficulty was similar; this keeps higher priority with the current opponent context. Saved FDR: 3.0 → 3.0.
Next three fixtures · Average FDR 3.3
Results: Goals conceded / match 0.5 → 3.5
Opponents faced: GW2 FUL (H), GW3 BRE (A) → GW4 ARS (H), GW5 MCI (A)
Recent opponents were harder; the schedule may explain part of the change, so this has lower priority. Saved FDR: 2.5 → 4.5.
Next three fixtures · Average FDR 3.0
Compare the latest 2 completed team matches with the previous 2; players use the latest 2 settled gameweeks against the previous 2. Doubles count as two team matches, but one player gameweek.
Team attack improves when expected goals (xG) rise; defence improves when expected goals conceded (xGC) fall. Labels require a change of at least 0.25 per match, a matching trend-line slope, a shift in the median and at least two thirds of recent observations supporting the change. The recent period must not slope in the opposite direction. Goals scored and conceded are shown separately as results; they do not decide the team labels.
Team xG sums official player xG using each fixture's recorded participants; xGC is the opponent's xG. Incomplete participant lists, missing xG and player totals spanning multiple fixtures remain unavailable. Every match in both periods needs complete evidence. Checked 03 Oct 2026, 00:25 UTC.
Within each team list, changes less explained by recent opponent difficulty come first. Improving teams against easier opponents, and declining teams against harder opponents, receive lower priority. Within those groups, Hot favours easier next-three fixtures and Not favours harder ones, then larger xG/xGC changes. Unknown difficulty ranks last. FDR uses the saved official ratings (1 easiest, 5 hardest), not reconstructed historical ratings. Fixture context changes the order, not the xG values or direction label. These are descriptive signals, not predicted points.
Player thresholds are 0.15 expected goal involvements per 90, 0.25 expected goals conceded per 90, 1 FPL point per 90, or 15 minutes per gameweek, with the same slope, median and persistence checks. Defensive trends cover goalkeepers and defenders; fewer expected goals conceded is better and reflects team defending while they played. Per-90 trends compare mean gameweek rates from appearances of at least 30 minutes, with at least two qualifying gameweeks and 90 total minutes in each period. A missing statistic never counts as zero.
Early signal compares one baseline observation with two recent observations. Sustained means at least three recent observations all support the direction. Developing means the persistence checks pass with a shorter or less consistent sample across two multi-gameweek periods. The chart runs oldest to newest; the dashed line separates periods. These labels describe observed direction, not a probability, a structural breakout or a transfer recommendation.
Player history available: GW1, GW2, GW3, GW4, GW5. Checked 03 Oct 2026, 00:25 UTC. Expected goal involvement is expected goals plus expected assists.
Use Hot or Not to find changes in player returns and team performance across completed gameweeks. Compare like-for-like windows and check minutes alongside per-90 figures before adding a player to your shortlist.
A recent rise or fall is descriptive evidence, not a promise about the next match. Check upcoming opponents in Fixture Difficulty and compare the player statistics before deciding on a transfer.
Investigate a form change in Player Explorer, check upcoming fixture difficulty, then compare predicted points over the same gameweeks.
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